GOJI
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DataReviewed by Joe S.

Statistical significance

Statistical significance is a check on whether a result is too large to blame on luck. It doesn't tell you a finding is important or true: it tells you random chance alone probably wouldn't have produced it.

Why it matters

Small samples produce dramatic-looking swings all the time. Ship decisions on those and you're steering the business on noise. Understanding significance, and its limits, is the difference between learning from data and being fooled by it slowly, expensively, and with great confidence.

How it works

Before the test, you fix the decision metric and the sample size. After the full sample, the observed difference is compared against the spread luck alone would create; clear it and the result is "significant". Peeking early, adding variants and swapping metrics all quietly break the guarantee.

What to do about it

Adopt one rule: decide before the data arrives (metric, sample, and what you'll do with either outcome). If a result would change a big decision, re-run it once before you re-organise around it.